Wish everyone a Happy and Prosperous New Year! What is your single best idea for 2024?

Praveen Chawla Jan 1, 2024

2023 ended with a bang with S&P up 25% and Nasdaq up 55%. Just amazing. Where do you think the market will go in 2024? up or down and by how much?
What is your favorite idea for 2024? I think this year will be the year when small cap stocks will outperform, and emerging markets will outperform. Please let us know your thoughts.

tomcassette Jan 3, 2024

Hello Praveen. Where the market goes is anyone's guess, I've been reading convincing arguments in both directions.

My single favorite play, ULTA. I see a lot of room to continue revenue growth in new stores and probable brand expansion outside of the US. Mean reversion on the PE is in alignment with the DCF found here. Their loyalty program is well-liked and effective (and massive). Lastly, the beauty industry has historically been resistant to severe influence by recessions. To quote someone as I was researching, "Women are not going to 'not put on their eyebrows'".

Five year ++ holding period with compounding target of 20-24% per year potential.

Praveen Chawla Jan 4, 2024

Thank you Tom. Ulta is a great business. I have been kicking myself for not buying it during the pandemic. I did recently buy some Estee Lauder. I see Ulta has recently started in Canada so your comment on international expansion potential is correct.

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