In one of his famous “memos” released on July 10, Howard Marks (Trades, Portfolio), co-chairman of multibillion-dollar asset management firm Oaktree Capital, discussed some of his past market calls.
The paper, titled “Taking the Temperature,” began with the investor explaining that he sent Harriet Agnew five memos from between 2000 and 2020 ahead of an interview last fall. He wrote:
“How were they chosen? First, I felt the memos accurately conveyed my thinking at the key turning points in that 20-year period. And second, my calls turned out to be right.”
The guru then went on to explain how he approaches market calls and briefly summarized what led him to making those decisions. The five calls covered the markets during the periods of January 2000, late 2004 to mid-2007, late 2008, March 2012 and March 2020.
Marks then explained that the five examples “lay the groundwork for a discussion of how one can make useful observations regarding the status of the markets.”
“Hopefully we learn from our experiences as we go through life,” he wrote. “But to really learn from them, we have to step back on occasion, look at an entire string of events, and figure out the following: (a) what happened, (b) is there a pattern that has repeated, and (c) what are the lessons to be learned from the pattern?”
Read Marks’ full memo here.
