Kroger's Secret to Success

How the company achieved strong free cash flow in a disinflationary market

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Sep 22, 2023
Summary
  • Kroger expects long-term growth in the food-at-home sector.
  • Short-term tailwinds expected in Kroger's gross margin rate.
  • Kroger's digital business grows by 12% in the second quarter.
  • Kroger Health expands offerings in the health and wellness space.
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The Kroger Co. (KR, Financial), one of the largest supermarket chains in the United States, recently released its second-quarter results. Despite facing challenges in the current economic environment, the company has shown resilience by achieving earnings growth and generating strong free cash flow.

Long-term growth view and short-term expectations

In his statement, Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip highlighted the company's long-term growth algorithm view. Kroger believes the food-at-home sector will continue to grow at a rate of 2% to 3% per year over the long term. It expects to achieve top-line growth between 2% and 4% and deliver earnings growth of 3% to 5%. The company plans to achieve this growth by expanding its market share and improving its profit margins through various strategies discussed during investor days.

In the short term, Kroger expects to see some tailwinds in its gross margin rate. These tailwinds are attributed to factors such as supply chain improvements and benefits from the company's own brand products. The grocery store chain will also closely manage costs in response to the lower headline growth rate in the current operating environment.

Value creation model and digital business growth

Kroger's ability to achieve earnings growth and generate strong free cash flow is a testament to its value creation model. Despite industry-wide disinflation impacting food-at-home sales, the company's management team has effectively managed the effects of this trend on the business. The company has achieved earnings per share growth and improved underlying operating results through strong gross margin management and tight cost controls.

One of the key drivers of Kroger's sales growth in the second quarter was its digital business, which grew by 12%. The company's unique combination of assets, including stores and fulfillment centers, has enabled growth in both pickup and delivery channels. Its focus on supply chain efficiency has also contributed to improved margins. The company has achieved operational efficiencies through improved transport capacity utilization and increased productivity in its warehouses and network.

Addressing challenges and financial results

While Kroger has faced challenges such as rising theft and organized retail crime, the company is implementing initiatives to mitigate the financial impact. It is increasing security measures and adopting new technology solutions to address these challenges.

The company's strong free cash flow generation is evident in its financial results. At the end of the second quarter, the net total debt to adjusted Ebitda ratio was at a record level of 1.31, well below its target range of 2.30 to 2.50. Kroger's disciplined approach to capital deployment prioritizes high-return opportunities that support its growth strategy and total shareholder return model.

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Future outlook and opioid settlement

Looking ahead, Kroger acknowledges the challenges presented by the current economic environment. The company expects identical sales without fuel to be at the low end of its full-year guidance range of 1% to 2%. However, management remains confident in its ability to navigate these challenges through effective cost management and the growth of alternative profit businesses.

In addition to its financial performance, the company has recently announced a nationwide opioid settlement framework. Kroger has agreed to pay up to approximately $1.4 billion to settle opioid lawsuits and claims. This settlement, while impacting the company's financial results, reflects Kroger's commitment to resolving these claims and shows its focus is shifting.

Partnership with Performance Kitchen

In an effort to increase margins and engage more deeply with higher income households, Kroger has announced an exciting partnership between its health care wing and Performance Kitchen, a company that specializes in creating healthy and convenient meals. This collaboration aims to provide customers with even more options for nutritious and convenient food choices.

The partnership comes at a time when consumers are increasingly seeking healthier alternatives and convenient meal solutions. With busy schedules and a growing focus on personal wellness, many individuals are looking for ways to incorporate nutritious meals into their daily routines without sacrificing taste or convenience.

Performance Kitchen is known for its chef-crafted meals that are made with high-quality ingredients and designed to meet various dietary needs. Their meals are free from artificial preservatives, flavors and colors, and they offer a wide range of options, including gluten-free, dairy-free and plant-based meals.

By partnering with Performance Kitchen, Kroger Health is expanding its offerings in the health and wellness space. This collaboration will allow customers to access a wider selection of healthy and convenient meal options, making it easier for them to make nutritious choices.

The health care wing of the company has been making significant strides in recent years to support customers' overall well-being. Through initiatives like the Feed Your Future program, which provides continuing education benefits to associates, and the Zero Hunger | Zero Waste impact plan, which aims to donate meals to those in need, Kroger is demonstrating its commitment to improving the communities it serves.

This partnership aligns with Kroger's mission to provide customers with a full, fresh and friendly experience. By offering a variety of healthy meal options, the company is empowering customers to make informed choices about their nutrition and supporting their overall health and wellness goals.

As the demand for convenient and healthy meal options continues to grow, this partnership is a strategic move that will benefit both companies and their customers. It will provide Kroger shoppers with more options for nutritious meals, while also expanding the reach of Performance Kitchen's products.

Conclusion

Overall, this collaboration highlights Kroger's commitment to meeting the evolving needs of its customers and supporting their health and wellness journeys. By partnering with Performance Kitchen, the company is taking another step toward providing customers with convenient and nutritious meal solutions that align with their dietary preferences and goals.

Overall, the second-quarter results demonstrate the company's resilience and ability to generate earnings growth and strong free cash flow. Its focus on improving margins, investing in its supply chain and diversifying its income streams has positioned it well for long-term success. Despite the evolving market landscape, Kroger remains committed to delivering attractive and sustainable total shareholder returns.

Disclosures

I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours. Click for the complete disclosure