What's Driving Century Aluminum Co's Surprising 78% Stock Rally?

Century Aluminum Co (CENX, Financial) has experienced a notable fluctuation in its stock price over recent periods. With a current market capitalization of $1.08 billion, the stock price stands at $11.69. Over the past week, CENX has seen a slight decline of 1.93%. However, looking at a broader timeframe, the stock has surged by an impressive 77.93% over the past three months. According to GuruFocus's valuation metrics, the stock is currently fairly valued, with a GF Value of $12.03, a slight decrease from the past GF Value of $13.19. Previously, the stock was considered a possible value trap, suggesting investors should think twice before investing. The recent price changes and valuation adjustments reflect a dynamic market perception of the company's worth.

Understanding Century Aluminum Co

Century Aluminum Co, operating within the metals and mining industry, is a key player in the production of primary aluminum. The company's product range includes high purity aluminum, standard grade aluminum sow and tee bars, as well as value-added billet and foundry products. A significant portion of Century Aluminum's revenue comes from its relationship with Glencore, which purchases the majority of the company's North American output. Additionally, Century Aluminum sources most of its alumina from Glencore and owns a carbon anode production facility in the Netherlands. This strategic partnership and diversified product offering position the company to capitalize on the demands of the global aluminum market.

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Profitability Analysis

Century Aluminum's financial health can be assessed through various profitability metrics. The company's Profitability Rank stands at 4/10, indicating challenges in maintaining consistent profits. Its Operating Margin is currently at -1.27%, which is better than 43.24% of its industry peers. The ROE is deeply negative at -47.01%, yet it still outperforms 28.11% of competitors. Similarly, the ROA is at -11.72%, surpassing 55.44% of industry peers. The ROIC of -1.82% is better than 79.96% of the companies in the same space. Over the past decade, Century Aluminum has managed to be profitable in only 2 years, which is still better than 51.16% of its industry counterparts. These figures suggest that while Century Aluminum may not be the most profitable company in its sector, it holds its ground against a significant portion of its competitors.

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Growth Prospects

When it comes to growth, Century Aluminum shows a promising trend. The company's Growth Rank is 6/10, reflecting a balanced growth profile. The 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share is at 13.70%, which is better than 54.67% of its industry peers. The 5-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share stands at 8.50%, outperforming 52.22% of competitors. Moreover, the 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate is an impressive 21.50%, surpassing 64.62% of industry peers. These growth rates indicate that Century Aluminum is expanding at a healthy pace relative to its market segment.

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Investor Confidence

Notable investors have taken positions in Century Aluminum, signaling confidence in the company's future. Ken Fisher (Trades, Portfolio) holds 2,337,111 shares, representing 2.53% of the company's shares. First Eagle Investment (Trades, Portfolio) has a stake of 791,514 shares, accounting for 0.86% of the shares, while Jim Simons (Trades, Portfolio) owns 614,499 shares, equating to 0.67%. These holdings by prominent investors may influence other market participants' views on the stock.

Competitive Landscape

Century Aluminum operates in a competitive industry, with several close rivals in terms of market capitalization. Kaiser Aluminum Corp (KALU, Financial) has a market cap of $1.02 billion, Constellium SE (CSTM, Financial) is valued at $2.72 billion, and Hindalco Industries Ltd (NSE:HINDALCO, Financial) stands at a much larger $14.73 billion. These competitors represent the diverse scale and scope of companies within the metals and mining sector, against which Century Aluminum must strategize to maintain and grow its market share.

Conclusion

In summary, Century Aluminum Co's recent stock performance has been a mix of short-term losses and significant gains over the past three months. The company's profitability metrics, while not stellar, show resilience in a challenging industry. Growth indicators are positive, suggesting potential for future expansion. The presence of significant investors and the company's standing among competitors further add to the narrative of a company with solid prospects. As the stock is currently deemed fairly valued, investors may find Century Aluminum an interesting consideration, especially when taking into account the broader market trends and the company's strategic position within its industry.

This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.