What's Driving Sunrun Inc's Surprising 21% Stock Rally?

Sunrun Inc (RUN, Financial), a prominent player in the semiconductor industry, has recently witnessed a notable uptick in its stock performance. Over the past week, the company's shares have climbed by 3.93%, and over the last three months, they have surged by an impressive 21.05%. Currently, Sunrun boasts a market capitalization of $3.58 billion, with a stock price of $16.15. Despite this positive trend, the GF Value, which stands at $26.06, suggests caution, labeling the stock as a possible value trap, a sentiment echoed in its valuation three months ago when the GF Value was higher at $31.08.

Overview of Sunrun Inc

Sunrun Inc specializes in the design, development, installation, sale, ownership, and maintenance of residential solar energy systems across the United States. The company operates by acquiring customers directly or through partnerships with various solar and strategic partners. These solar systems, constructed by Sunrun or its partners, are owned by the company, with customers typically entering into 20- to 25-year agreements. Sunrun also engages in the sale of solar energy systems and related products. 1800893566994771968.png

Assessing Sunrun's Profitability

Despite its growth, Sunrun's profitability metrics present a mixed picture. The company's Profitability Rank is relatively low at 4/10. Its Operating Margin stands at -36.47%, which, although better than 11.98% of 985 companies in the same sector, indicates significant challenges. Similarly, its Return on Equity (ROE) and Return on Assets (ROA) are -24.96% and -7.15% respectively, positioning Sunrun better than only a small fraction of its peers. The Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) at -4.12% also reflects a need for improvement in capital efficiency. 1800893589358800896.png

Growth Trajectory of Sunrun

Sunrun's Growth Rank is considerably stronger at 8/10. The company has demonstrated robust growth metrics, with a 3-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share of 16.40%, outperforming 70.86% of 923 companies in its industry. Its 5-Year Revenue Growth Rate per Share also stands strong at 11.50%. Looking ahead, the estimated Total Revenue Growth Rate for the next 3 to 5 years is 9.27%, which is better than 32.18% of 174 companies. However, its 3-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate is -19.00%, indicating some concerns in earnings sustainability. 1800893610057691136.png

Key Shareholders and Market Influence

Notable investors in Sunrun include Jeremy Grantham (Trades, Portfolio), holding 14,626,019 shares (6.6% share percentage), George Soros (Trades, Portfolio) with 2,080,941 shares (0.94% share percentage), and Steven Cohen (Trades, Portfolio), who owns 2,071,138 shares (0.93% share percentage). These significant holdings by prominent market players underscore a strong investor belief in the company's potential despite some financial metrics concerns.

Competitive Landscape

Sunrun operates in a competitive sector, with major players like NEXTracker Inc (NXT, Financial) with a market cap of $8.54 billion, JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd (JKS, Financial) valued at $1.36 billion, and Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS, Financial) at $1.31 billion. These companies represent significant competition but also highlight the scale and potential within the solar energy sector.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Sunrun Inc's recent stock performance has been impressive, marked by a 21.05% gain over the past three months. However, the company's financial health, as indicated by its profitability and growth metrics, presents a mixed scenario that potential investors should consider carefully. While there are challenges, particularly in profitability and earnings sustainability, the strong growth rates and strategic market position provide a basis for potential future gains. Investors should weigh these factors alongside the ongoing developments in the renewable energy sector to make informed decisions.

This article, generated by GuruFocus, is designed to provide general insights and is not tailored financial advice. Our commentary is rooted in historical data and analyst projections, utilizing an impartial methodology, and is not intended to serve as specific investment guidance. It does not formulate a recommendation to purchase or divest any stock and does not consider individual investment objectives or financial circumstances. Our objective is to deliver long-term, fundamental data-driven analysis. Be aware that our analysis might not incorporate the most recent, price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative information. GuruFocus holds no position in the stocks mentioned herein.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.