Morning Brew: Hedge Funds Shift, Tesla Recall, and PayPal's Strong Performance

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S&P futures vs fair value: +11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +60.00.

The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points (0.2% above fair value), Nasdaq 100 futures are up 60 points (0.3% above fair value), and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down five points (0.1% below fair value).

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures are higher due to gains in big tech stocks. However, there's some hesitation ahead of key events later this week. Earnings news got mixed reactions. Pfizer (PFE, Financial) and PayPal (PYPL, Financial) are up before the market opens, while Procter & Gamble (PG) is down.

Today's economic schedule includes the July Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 ET. Other data: May FHFA Housing Price Index and May S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index at 9:00 ET, and June JOLTS Job Openings at 10:00 ET.

Treasury yields are mostly unchanged. The 10-year note yield is down one basis point to 4.17%, and the 2-year note yield remains at 4.39%.

In corporate news:

  • Pfizer (PFE, Financial): Beats earnings by $0.14, revenue above expectations; raises FY24 EPS above consensus, revenue in-line.
  • Merck (MRK, Financial): Beats earnings by $0.12, revenue above expectations; lowers FY24 EPS guidance due to a one-time charge, slightly raises revenue guidance.
  • PayPal (PYPL, Financial): Beats earnings by $0.20, revenue in-line; guides Q3 EPS above consensus, raises FY24 EPS above consensus.
  • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK): Beats earnings by $0.25, revenue in-line; guides FY24 EPS in-line.
  • Procter & Gamble (PG): Beats earnings by $0.03, revenue in-line; guides FY25 EPS and revenue in-line.
  • Archer-Daniels (ADM): Misses earnings by $0.19, revenue below expectations; reaffirms FY24 EPS guidance.
  • SoFi Technologies (SOFI, Financial): Beats earnings by $0.01, revenue above expectations; guides Q3 EPS and revenue above consensus, FY24 EPS in-line.
  • Lattice Semi (LSCC): Misses earnings by $0.01, revenue below expectations; guides Q3 revenue below consensus.
  • CrowdStrike (CRWD): Delta (DAL) seeks compensation from Microsoft (MSFT) and CrowdStrike for technology outage.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Today's News

Hedge funds are selling industrial stocks and rotating into commodity-sensitive sectors, according to Goldman Sachs. Industrials (XLI) was the most net sold US sector by hedge funds, driven by continued de-grossing activity with long sales significantly outweighing short covers. In contrast, Energy (XLE) and Materials (XLB) were the most net bought sectors, with Chemicals, Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels, and Energy Equipment & Services among the most favored subsectors.

Tesla (TSLA, Financial) has recalled approximately 1.85 million vehicles in the United States due to a software issue that may fail to detect when the hood is unlatched. This issue could cause the hood to fly open while driving, obstructing the driver’s view and increasing the risk of a crash. The recall affects multiple models, including the 2021-2024 Model 3, Model S, Model X, and 2020-2024 Model Y vehicles.

PayPal Holdings (PYPL, Financial) saw its stock jump 4.9% in premarket trading after reporting stronger-than-expected Q2 earnings and revenue. The company also boosted its 2024 earnings guidance and raised its share repurchase outlook. PayPal now expects 2024 adjusted EPS of $3.88-$3.98 and plans to buy back $6 billion worth of shares, up from its previous guidance of at least $5 billion.

SoFi Technologies (SOFI, Financial) raised its 2024 earnings and revenue guidance following a strong Q2 performance. The company expects Q3 adjusted net revenue of $625M-$645M and adjusted EBITDA of $160-$165M. SoFi also reaffirmed its expectation to end the year with a total capital ratio above 16% and plans to add at least 2.3 million new members in 2024.

Pfizer (PFE, Financial) shares gained 4.1% in premarket trading after the company exceeded expectations with its second-quarter results and raised its full-year outlook. The pharma giant reported adjusted earnings of $0.60 a share on revenue of $13.28 billion, driven by strength in its oncology portfolio and efforts to realign its cost base.

BioNTech (BNTX, Financial) announced that its mRNA-based cancer therapy BNT111, in combination with Regeneron’s (REGN) anti-PD-1 therapy, Libtayo, succeeded in a Phase 2 trial for melanoma. The combination led to a statistically significant improvement in tumor responses and was well tolerated, with a safety profile consistent with prior trials.

Merck (MRK, Financial) reported stronger-than-expected financials for Q2, driven by its cancer therapy Keytruda, which generated $7.3 billion in sales. However, the company trimmed its profit outlook for 2024, sending its stock down by approximately 3% in premarket trading.

Enterprise Products Partners (EPD, Financial) announced plans to expand its Houston Ship Channel operations to meet strong customer demand for natural gas liquids export capacity. The expansion will increase propane and butane export capabilities by approximately 300,000 barrels per day and is expected to be completed by the end of 2026.

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR, Financial) saw its price target raised by Rosenblatt Securities, citing continued momentum from Nvidia (NVDA, Financial). The analyst maintained a Buy rating and increased the price target to $880 from $800, highlighting strong growth prospects in the industrial and automotive markets.

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Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.