Morning Brew: Nvidia Price Target Raised and Palantir's Game-Changing AI Deal

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S&P futures vs fair value: flat. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.00.

The S&P 500 futures are flat, trading in line with fair value. Nasdaq 100 futures are down one point, slightly below fair value, and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down ten points, also slightly below fair value.

Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow are mostly unchanged as the week ends. Gains in big tech and chipmakers are providing some support. Semiconductor stocks are up after TSMC (TSM, Financial) reported a big sales increase in July.

The stock market might end the week nearly unchanged, with the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 down 0.5% and 0.7% since last Friday. The Treasury market is set to end the week with losses. The 10-year note yield is at 3.95%, up 16 basis points from last Friday, and the 2-year note yield is at 4.04%, up 17 basis points.

Selling in Treasuries suggests that recession fears might have been exaggerated. No major US economic data is expected today to change this view.

In corporate news:

  • TSMC (TSM 170.00, +5.45, +3.3%): Reported a 44.7% year-over-year increase in July sales.
  • Paramount Global (PARA 10.86, +0.65, +6.4%): Beat earnings estimates by $0.41 but missed on revenue. Announced a 15% reduction in its US workforce.
  • Gilead Sciences (GILD 76.20, +0.61, +0.8%): Beat earnings estimates by $0.40 and revenue expectations. Provided in-line FY24 EPS guidance.
  • Expedia Group (EXPE 129.30, +11.33, +9.6%): Beat earnings estimates by $0.33, with in-line revenue. Noted some softness in travel demand.
  • DXC Technology (DXC 19.60, +1.27, +6.9%): Beat earnings estimates by $0.16 and revenue expectations. Provided strong Q2 and FY25 guidance.
  • Take-Two (TTWO 147.78, +9.00, +6.5%): Missed earnings estimates by $0.06 and revenue expectations. Lowered FY25 EPS guidance.
  • Capri Holdings (CPRI 30.80, -1.30, -4.1%): Missed earnings and revenue estimates.
  • The Trade Desk (TTD 93.79, +5.52, +6.3%): Beat earnings estimates by $0.03 and revenue expectations. Provided strong Q3 revenue guidance.
  • Unity Software (U 14.34, -0.02, -0.1%): Beat revenue expectations but lowered FY24 outlook. CFO Luis Visoso is departing.
  • News Corp (NWSA 27.20, +0.42, +1.6%): Beat earnings estimates by $0.01 and revenue expectations. Considering the sale of Foxtel.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Today's News

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) saw a boost in premarket trading as Mizuho Securities raised the semiconductor giant's price target ahead of its fiscal second-quarter results. Analyst Vijay Rakesh highlighted the tight capacity for Taiwan Semiconductor's (TSM, Financial) Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate, driven by Nvidia's H100 and H200 GPUs. Despite a potential delay in mass production of the Blackwell line, demand remains robust.

Palantir (PLTR, Financial) has inked a significant deal with Microsoft (MSFT, Financial) to provide AI services for defense and intelligence sectors. Wedbush Securities described the agreement as "game-changing," forecasting it will accelerate the adoption of Palantir's AI Platform (AIP) within federal sectors over the next 12 to 18 months. Analyst Dan Ives maintained an Outperform rating and a $38 price target for Palantir.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM, Financial) reported a 44.7% year-over-year revenue increase for July, driven by the rising demand for AI chips. With major clients like Apple (AAPL, Financial), Nvidia (NVDA, Financial), and AMD (AMD, Financial), the company saw a 23.6% month-over-month revenue jump. TSM's strong performance is expected to continue into the third quarter, bolstered by demand for its advanced process technologies.

This week's dividend activity included increases from J&J Snacks (JJSF, Financial) and C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW, Financial), as well as declarations from Progressive (PGR, Financial) and Prudential Financial (PRU, Financial). EnerSys (ENS, Financial) also announced a dividend increase, raising its payout to $0.24 per share, up 6.7% from the previous $0.225.

Energy Transfer LP (ET, Financial) announced a public offering of over 38.75 million common units by WTG Midstream and an affiliate of Stonepeak. Barclays is underwriting the offering, but Energy Transfer will not receive any proceeds. Shares of Energy Transfer were down 2.28% in premarket trading following the announcement.

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Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.