Morning Brew: Tesla Delivery Estimates Cut, Adobe's Guidance Concerns, and United Airlines'

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The S&P 500 futures are up 11 points, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 12 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 56 points.

The stock market is ready to start the final session of the week strong. Futures for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials are higher.

Today's economic reports include:

  • 8:30 ET: August Import Prices, Import Prices excluding oil, Export Prices, and Export Prices excluding agriculture
  • 10:00 ET: Final September University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

The 10-year yield is down 2 basis points to 3.66%, and the 2-year yield is down 5 basis points to 3.60%.

In corporate news:

Today's News

Analysts are adjusting their estimates on the number of Q3 deliveries Tesla (TSLA, Financial) will disclose as the calendar gets closer to the reporting date of October 2. Canaccord analyst cut their estimate to 469,200 vehicles from a prior estimate for 480,000 vehicles. Meanwhile, Guggenheim forecasts Q3 deliveries of 456,000 vehicles. The consensus estimate for Q3 deliveries is now 459,000 vehicles. For perspective, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in Q2 and 435,059 vehicles in Q3 a year ago. Some firms have also lowered their Q3 EPS estimates on Tesla to adjust for even more aggressive pricing in certain markets. In China, Tesla has seen sales momentum pick up, although the company has been subsidizing interest rates down to 0%. The consensus Q3 EPS estimate from analysts has been trimmed to $0.61. Notably, Tesla has missed EPS estimates in its last four quarters and five out of the last six quarters.

Adobe's (ADBE, Financial) stock fell about 9% premarket on Friday after the company's guidance saw some concerns from investors and analysts. Jefferies kept its Buy rating and $700 price target on the stock, noting that there were no questions on the strong print, but many on the guidance. Analysts led by Brent Thill said that the fiscal third net new annual recurring revenue, or ARR, beat guidance by $44M, but the fiscal fourth quarter outlook was $21M below consensus, which disappointed investor expectations that were buoyed by positive checks. While timing of large deals and Cyber Monday is a factor, the analysts also see extra conservatism versus seasonality and given accelerating AI usage. Thill and his team expect fiscal 2025 could be the year of AI monetization. Fiscal 2024 is already seeing some monetization, though early, as new AI tools are rolled out.

United Airlines (UAL, Financial) announced that it has established a new benchmark for inflight connectivity by entering into the largest agreement of its kind in the airline industry with SpaceX to implement Starlink's Wi-Fi service across its mainline and regional aircraft fleet. The airline company said customers will soon enjoy the same high-speed, low-latency Internet service in the air that they enjoy on the ground. UAL said the Internet access will be free. "The new, gate-to-gate connectivity will unlock game-changing experiences in the sky at a scale that no other major U.S. airline provides like access to live TV and streaming services, social media, shopping, gaming and more, on seatback screens and personal devices simultaneously." United Airlines said it expects to have Starlink on all United aircraft over the next several years. Testing begins in early 2025 with the first passenger flights expected later that year.

MicroStrategy (MSTR, Financial) said it acquired around 18,300 bitcoins between Aug. 6 and Sept. 12 for about $1.11B in cash at an average price of ~$60,408 per bitcoin. The purchase was made using proceeds from the sale of shares under the sales agreement dated August 1, 2024. As previously disclosed, the company entered into an agreement to sell shares of its class A common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $2B. As of September 12, the company, together with its subsidiaries, held an aggregate of approximately 244,800 bitcoins.

Vladimir Putin has declared that if NATO members allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-made long-range missiles, this would mean that the West is directly at war with Russia, changing the nature of the conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has long called on NATO allies to allow Ukraine to fire Western-made missiles - like the ATACMS manufactured by Lockheed Martin (LMT, Financial) - into Russia. "It is not a question of allowing the Ukrainian regime to strike Russia with these weapons or not," Putin told Russian newspaper Kommersant. "It is a question of making a decision on whether NATO countries will directly participate in the military conflict or not."

Boeing (BA, Financial) workers overwhelmingly voted to reject a proposed labor contract and are set to strike, with the work stoppage beginning at midnight. Approximately 33,000 members of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers (IAM) voted 96% in favor of the strike, far exceeding the two-thirds majority required to initiate a walkout. The rejected contract included a 25% raise over four years. However, the union argued that these terms fell short of addressing the rising cost of living, as negotiators sought raises closer to 40%. This strike adds to the already turbulent times at Boeing after such recent incidents as a much-publicized emergency exit blowout, the departure of the firm's CEO and Senate hearings.

Chevron (CVX, Financial) was the most shorted stock in the Americas in August, according to the latest Shortside Crowdedness Report from Hazeltree. The San Ramon, California-based energy company topped the list as the most crowded security in the large-cap category with a score of 99, moving up from second position in July (97). The Hazeltree Crowdedness Score represents securities that are being shorted by the highest percentage of funds in Hazeltree’s community. As of Aug 30, traders sold 52.13M shares of Chevron short, representing 2.85% of the float. Tesla (TSLA, Financial) was a close second with a score of 97, followed by On Semiconductor (ON, Financial), Super Micro Computer (SMCI, Financial) and Accenture (ACN, Financial), all of which scored 88.

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Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.