Tesla's Full Self-Driving Technology Faces Criticism Ahead of Robotaxi Unveil

Analyst calls FSD a "safety disaster" as independent tests reveal frequent driver interventions

Summary
  • Recent tests show Tesla's FSD requires intervention every 13 miles on average
  • Analyst values FSD at near zero, contrasting with others' $300-600 billion estimates
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As Tesla Inc. (TSLA, Financial) prepares to unveil its Robotaxi in two weeks, analysts are raising concerns about the company's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology. GLJ Research analyst Gordon Johnson has described Tesla's FSD as a "safety disaster" that lags far behind competitors like Waymo and Cruise.

Recent evaluations have highlighted potential issues with Tesla's autonomous driving software:

  1. AMCI Testing reported that drivers had to intervene over 75 times during their evaluation, averaging once every 13 miles.
  2. Data from Teslafsdtracker.com shows the latest FSD version has a critical disengagement every 130 miles, or every 72 miles in city driving.
  3. Competing technologies from Waymo, Zoox, and others reportedly achieve much higher miles-to-disengagement ratios.

These findings contrast sharply with some analysts' high valuations of Tesla's FSD technology, which range from $300 billion to $600 billion. Johnson argues that the real-time value of FSD is close to zero, potentially even negative due to safety concerns.

As Tesla eyes expansion into the Chinese market with its Fully Supervised FSD, it will face competition from established players like Baidu's Apollo Go. The upcoming Robotaxi unveil event may be crucial for Tesla to address these concerns and demonstrate the viability of its autonomous driving technology.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.