The Liberal Democratic Party of Japan recently held its presidential election. After two rounds of voting, former Secretary-General Shigeru Ishiba, in his fifth attempt, was elected. He is expected to be confirmed as the new Prime Minister of Japan in a special Diet session on October 1.
Analysts note that Ishiba will face multiple challenges, including mitigating public dissatisfaction due to corruption scandals, leading the party in the upcoming House of Representatives election, and promoting economic and social improvements. In foreign and security policies, Ishiba has both conservative and pragmatic elements, and his policies will be closely watched.
In this election, nine candidates competed, the highest number since the party introduced the co-nomination system in 1972. According to Japanese media polls, Ishiba, Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi, and former Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi were the front runners.
During the first round of voting among 367 party parliamentarians and 368 votes from party members and friends, Takaichi and Ishiba received 181 and 154 votes respectively, leading the race. However, as no one secured a majority, a second round of voting was required. In the final tally, Ishiba won 215 to Takaichi's 194 votes, securing his victory.
Analysts believe Ishiba won due to three main advantages:
First, he has strong grassroots support. With a large number of candidates, parliamentary votes were scattered, making local and grassroots votes more crucial. Ishiba excelled in these areas, reflecting his popularity.
Second, Ishiba is untainted by scandals. Unlike many in the party embroiled in corruption, Ishiba has remained scandal-free, making him a suitable leader to restore public confidence.
Third, Ishiba is experienced with 38 years in politics, including roles as Secretary-General and Defense Minister. This experience is crucial, especially against the opposition's seasoned new leader, Yoshihiko Noda.
Ishiba will immediately face significant challenges upon taking office. His top priority will be regaining public trust lost to corruption scandals and leading the Liberal Democratic Party to win the upcoming House election. The current House term expires next October, and Ishiba must decide the right time to dissolve the House for elections. He advocates for transparent political funding to address the corruption issues.
Economically, Japan faces slow growth and declining wages, exacerbated by the recent yen depreciation and rising prices. Ishiba aims to continue current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's economic policies more effectively, though their success remains to be seen.
In foreign and security policies, Japan has been aligning closely with the US, creating regional tensions. Ishiba has conservative propositions like establishing an "Asian NATO" and revising Japan's Self-Defense Forces to a "Defense Army." However, he remains cautious on sensitive issues like visiting the Yasukuni Shrine and modifying the US-Japan Status of Forces Agreement for more balanced relations.
