Last week, the US Federal Reserve's significant 50-basis point rate cut had a limited impact on the stock market. As US inflation pressures eased, investors shifted their focus to employment and consumer data, affecting the Fed’s future rate adjustment plans. The Dow Jones Index rose by 0.59%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.62%, and the NASDAQ climbed 0.95%. Additionally, Chinese ADRs experienced a significant boost, with the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index jumping nearly 24% due to favorable policies from the Chinese government.
Oil prices saw a sharp decline last week, with US crude falling by 5.20% and Brent crude dropping by 3.37%. The decrease was attributed to reports that Saudi Arabia plans to gradually increase production starting in December, and Libya may swiftly resume oil production and exports. Meanwhile, international gold prices saw a slight rise of 0.83% over the week.
This week, investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the US non-farm payroll data for September, scheduled for Friday. Economists generally predict that the number of new non-farm jobs will decrease from 142,000 in August to 140,000 in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in November is currently over 50%. Moreover, the US will release the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for September on Tuesday and the ADP employment data on Wednesday, which will also be closely monitored by investors.
In Europe, the Eurozone will announce its Producer Price Index (PPI) for August on Thursday. Economists anticipate a 2.4% year-over-year decline. As inflation pressure in the Eurozone diminishes and the economy remains sluggish, market expectations for the European Central Bank to accelerate its rate cuts have increased. Currently, there is an 80% probability of the ECB lowering rates by 25 basis points in October.
In the oil market, the OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee will meet on Wednesday. Russia's top oil official and OPEC representative, Novak, indicated that OPEC+ does not intend to alter the existing oil production plan at this time.
