Following the political crisis in Libya that sharply reduced its oil supply, OPEC's oil production in September saw a significant decrease. According to a survey, OPEC's daily oil production in September fell by 480,000 barrels to 26.61 million barrels. Libya's oil production plummeted by 38% after the eastern government halted exports in a bid to seize control of the central bank.
Libya's crisis inadvertently benefited other OPEC member countries, which have been limiting production to boost oil prices. However, this support may be short-lived, as insiders indicate that Libya is preparing to resume production following a compromise between two major rival factions.
Despite the decrease in Libyan production, oil prices have largely remained unaffected, dropping 17% since early July to approximately $73 per barrel due to weak demand. On Tuesday, Brent crude oil futures rose by 2.8% after U.S. officials reported that OPEC member Iran is preparing to attack Israel, escalating a year-long conflict in the region.
A joint ministerial monitoring committee of key OPEC+ countries is scheduled to hold an online meeting to assess the global market. Unnamed representatives attending the meeting expect no policy changes from the organization. The committee will primarily focus on member countries that have failed to meet their production cut commitments, such as Iraq and Kazakhstan. OPEC+ has a few weeks to decide whether to proceed with the planned production increase in December.
