Morning Brew: Humana Faces Sharp Decline in Medicare Advantage Ratings

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S&P 500 futures are down 14 points, Nasdaq 100 futures are down 40 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 118 points. All three are trading 0.2% lower.

The market is being affected by the possibility of further conflict in the Middle East. Reports suggest that Israel might take significant action against Iran, targeting oil and nuclear facilities. This news has caused WTI crude oil futures to rise by 3.1%, reaching $72.00 per barrel.

Treasury yields remain mostly unchanged. The 10-year yield is up by 2 basis points to 3.76%, while the 2-year yield is down by 1 basis point to 3.61%.

The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index has decreased by 1.3% after an 11.0% increase last week. Other notable data for today includes the September ADP Employment Change estimate at 8:15 AM ET and the weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories at 10:30 AM ET.

Nike (NKE, Financial) shares dropped by 7.3% to 82.61 after beating earnings by $0.18 and reporting in-line revenue. However, North American revenue fell by 11%. The company is withdrawing FY25 guidance due to a CEO transition and will provide quarterly guidance for the rest of the year.

Humana (HUM, Financial) shares fell by 24.1% to 210.81 after disclosing that only 25% of its members are currently enrolled in plans rated 4 stars and above for 2025, down from 94% in 2024.

Exxon Mobil (XOM, Financial) and Chevron (CVX, Financial) are both benefiting from higher oil prices. Exxon Mobil rose by 1.8% to 122.09, and Chevron increased by 1.7% to 152.20.

Lamb Weston (LW, Financial) shares fell by 4.1% to 62.52 despite beating earnings by $0.01 and revenue. The company reaffirmed its FY25 revenue guidance but provided lower EPS guidance and announced restructuring.

Conagra (CAG, Financial) shares dropped by 2.6% to 31.86 after missing earnings by $0.07 and revenue. However, the company reaffirmed its FY25 EPS guidance.

Cal-Maine Foods (CALM, Financial) shares rose by 1.3% to 77.86 despite missing earnings by $0.30 but beating revenue estimates. The company will pay a dividend of $1.02 per share.

Today's News

Humana (HUM, Financial) saw a significant drop of around 15% in premarket trading after revealing a drastic reduction in members enrolled in its Medicare Advantage plans rated four stars and above. Preliminary 2025 MA Star Ratings data indicated a ~94% decline from 2024, affecting about 1.6 million members. Humana contested the data, suggesting possible errors in CMS calculations.

Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX, Financial) shares rebounded in premarket trading after the U.S. FDA approved a clinical trial for its tumor candidate REC-1245. The AI-focused biotech, backed by Nvidia (NVDA, Financial), plans to start a Phase 1/2 trial in Q4 2024 targeting an addressable market of over 100K patients in the U.S. and five major European countries.

Nikola Corporation (NKLA, Financial) surged in early trading after reporting the wholesale of 88 Class 8 hydrogen fuel cell electric trucks in Q3, hitting its sales guidance. The company has wholesaled 200 hydrogen fuel cell trucks in the first three quarters of 2024, marking a record sales quarter.

Nvidia (NVDA, Financial) and Accenture (ACN, Financial) expanded their AI partnership, creating a new Nvidia Business Group within Accenture. This new division will train 30,000 professionals globally to help clients scale enterprise AI adoption using Nvidia's AI stack, aiming to reinvent business processes and operations.

Verizon (VZ, Financial) convinced a federal judge in Texas to discard an $847 million patent verdict and order a new trial. The telecom giant was initially found to have infringed patents related to wireless communications technology. The judge ruled that the jury's decision was against the weight of the evidence.

Major casino-hotel operators in Atlantic City, including Caesars Entertainment (CZR, Financial) and MGM Resorts International (MGM, Financial), won a key ruling when a federal judge dismissed a consumer class action accusing them of price-fixing through AI and algorithms. The lawsuit was dismissed with prejudice, preventing it from being refiled.

Apple (AAPL, Financial) is facing a complaint from the U.S. National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) for allegedly imposing unlawful workplace rules that violate employees' rights. The complaint includes accusations of forcing employees to sign confidentiality and non-compete agreements and enforcing overly broad misconduct and social media policies.

Science Applications International (SAIC, Financial) received an upgrade to Overweight from J.P. Morgan, which also downgraded Booz Allen Hamilton (BAH) to Underweight. The upgrade reflects SAIC's improved financials and strong management, while the downgrade for BAH was due to revised estimates for government IT service providers.

Jefferies downgraded ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM, Financial) to Hold from Buy after a strong performance, with shares up 40% over the past month. Despite ongoing negotiations and potential freight disruptions, the stock's recent gains appear to reflect much of this potential.

Nike (NKE, Financial) shares dropped over 5% following a mixed FQ1 earnings report and withdrawal of full-year guidance. The company postponed its investor day ahead of a CEO transition, with declines in footwear and apparel sales contributing to the disappointing results.

Philippines imposed a 12% VAT on non-resident digital service providers like Netflix (NFLX), HBO (WBD), and Disney (DIS). The new law aims to create an equitable tax environment between local and international digital companies operating within the country.

MARA (MARA) reported a 5% increase in energized hash rate to 36.9 EH/s in September, with BTC production growing by 5% to 705 BTC. The company remains on track to target 50 EH/s by the end of 2024, with current BTC holdings nearing 27,000.

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Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.