PDD: Chinese Stock Rally Continues on Stimulus Boost

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4 days ago
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Chinese stocks are continuing their upward momentum, with PDD Holdings (PDD, Financial) rising 6.35%. Baidu (BIDU) gained 3.9%, and Yum China Holdings (YUMC) increased by 3.6%. The driving force behind this rise is a series of subsidies and stimulus measures announced by the Chinese government last week.

With China's economy underperforming and potentially missing its 5% growth target for 2024, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented various interest rate cuts to lower borrowing costs and encourage spending. These rates are expected to decrease by 20 to 30 basis points, and home mortgage down payments will be capped at 15%.

Additionally, the PBOC announced over $110 billion in funds to subsidize institutional investors buying Chinese stocks and for Chinese companies to repurchase their own stocks. These measures are aimed at boosting consumer spending, benefiting companies like PDD, Baidu, and Yum China, while also lifting stock prices.

Wall Street forecasts further gains for Chinese stocks. UBS predicts a 7% increase by the end of 2024, Morgan Stanley expects a 10% rise, and Nomura similarly forecasts a gain of just over 10%.

Now, let's take a closer look at PDD Holdings (PDD, Financial). The stock is currently priced at $154.89, reflecting a price change of 6.35%. The stock's market capitalization stands at approximately $215.11 billion.

On the financial metrics front, PDD Holdings boasts a PE ratio of 16.69, suggesting reasonable valuation in comparison to its earnings. The company's Price-to-Book (PB) ratio is at 6.14. Furthermore, PDD Holdings has shown strong financial strength with an Altman Z-score of 7.21, indicating solid financial stability.

PDD Holdings has exhibited robust growth metrics, with a 3-year revenue growth rate of 46%, placing it in the top 6.03 percentile of its industry. Additionally, its EBITDA growth over the past year is a noteworthy 132.3%, and its operating cash flow growth over the same period is 106.6%.

One potential concern for PDD Holdings could be its gross margin, which has been in long-term decline, averaging a 3.4% decline per year. Despite this, the company's financial strength remains strong with an interest coverage ratio of 4800.79, ensuring it has sufficient cash to cover debt obligations.

In terms of valuation, PDD Holdings is deemed to be modestly undervalued with a GF Value of $197.33. For more detailed analysis and comparison, you can check the GF Value page.

The company's current financial health is supported by a positive Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of 8.64%, which is relatively high and provides a buffer for future growth opportunities.

In summary, PDD Holdings (PDD, Financial) appears to be on solid financial footing with strong growth prospects and a reasonable valuation. The company's recent stock price movement is supported by the Chinese government's economic stimulus measures, further signaling potential for future gains.

Disclosures

I/We may personally own shares in some of the companies mentioned above. However, those positions are not material to either the company or to my/our portfolios.