Goldman Sachs technical strategist Scott Rubner has expressed overwhelming optimism towards the U.S. stock market, raising concerns that his target for the S&P 500 index might be conservatively low. Rubner forecasts a significant rally for the S&P 500, expecting it to surpass 6000 points by late 2024. He anticipates this surge will be preceded by a temporary dip over the next few weeks, aligning with historical trends.
Rubner noted that the S&P 500 has already risen by 956 points, a 20% increase this year. Historical data suggests markets typically dip in October before rebounding, especially during election years. The strategist highlighted an imminent end to the U.S. corporate stock buyback blackout period on October 25, predicting that the $974 billion buyback plans approved in September will further fuel market growth.
Additionally, the upcoming corporate earnings season could propel stock prices higher if outcomes meet analysts' elevated expectations. Rubner referred to the critical period starting October 25 as the "Super Bowl" of U.S. corporate earnings, with 61% of the S&P 500's market cap reporting within two weeks before the elections.
Despite his bullish outlook towards year-end growth, Rubner warned of increased market volatility in the interim, suggesting that investors prepare for potential overreactions to daily news and themes.
