Stronger-than-Expected U.S. Jobs Growth Challenges Fed's Rate Cut Strategy

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Oct 04, 2024
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The U.S. Labor Department's latest report shows a significant rise in employment for September, adding 254,000 jobs, the largest increase since March. This surpasses the general expectation of declining job numbers. UBS points out that the six-month moving average now stands at 167,000 jobs, indicating an economy trending towards growth.

In addition to job growth, the number of employed individuals rose by 430,000, marking a significant single-month increase. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, driven by increased employment and a reduction in the unemployed population from 7.115 million to 6.834 million. These figures have helped ease fears of an economic downturn.

Despite the positive job data, concerns arise as this surge coincides with the Federal Reserve's easing cycle. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, while year-over-year wage growth reached 4.0%, above the predicted 3.8%. This wage growth may signal potential inflationary pressures as the Fed pursues a more relaxed monetary policy.

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