Dongzi Securities Big Data Sentiment Analysis Report

**Dongzi Securities Big Data Sentiment Analysis Report**

**Release Date**

**October 22, 2024 9:25:00 AM**

* Dongzi Securities Big Data Sentiment Analysis Indicator (I)

[Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Long Positions Index]

* **International investors' long positions in overseas Chinese securities markets are relatively positive**

* **Dongzi Securities October 22, 2024 9:30:00 AM**

* Today, Dongzi Securities released the "Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Long Positions Index" at 58.9, down 12.3% from the previous day. Although the index has experienced a certain decline, international investors' sentiment towards long positions in overseas Chinese securities markets remains relatively positive.

* Evercore ISI's strategists are actively calling on investors to build positions in China and China-related stocks. They emphasize that there are many attractive valuations and policy-supported investment opportunities in the market. From the performance of the Hang Seng Index and other Chinese stock market indices, China's market is still one of the cheapest markets globally, both in absolute terms and relative to other markets.

* However, UBS analysts pointed out in a report that investors generally believe that the onshore Chinese market and the Hong Kong stock market have entered a volatile phase. Despite China's recent introduction of a series of monetary policy stimulus measures, investors remain cautious before the US election. They are more inclined to wait until the middle of November, when the National People's Congress (NPC) meeting is held, before making further investment decisions.

* It is worth noting that since the end of September, China has introduced a series of economic stimulus measures, which have had a positive impact on economic expectations. Some international institutions have therefore revised up their forecasts for China's economic growth in 2024. These institutions believe that Beijing is likely to achieve its "around 5%" economic growth target. Among them, UBS, Moody's Analytics, Goldman Sachs, and Nomura's forecasts for China's GDP growth in 2024 are as high as 4.95%.

* In summary,

**✭ Index Explanation: The Dongzi Securities "Overseas China Securities - Daily Long-Only Comprehensive Index" is the world's first index that monitors the daily bullish sentiment of the Chinese stock market from global media and institutions. The index is based on the daily comments of the world's top media on China's politics, economy, diplomacy, and stock market, and uses big data algorithms to derive the optimistic and pessimistic sentiment values for the Chinese stock market. The higher the value, the stronger the willingness to buy Chinese stocks. **

* Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicators for Public Opinion (Part 2)

[Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily News Opinion Index]

* **Overseas Chinese Securities Market News Face is Neutral**

* **Dongzi Securities 2024-10-22 9:30:00**

* Today, the "Singapore FTSE China A50 Daily News Opinion Index" recorded 0.12, which is neutral towards the market. Meanwhile, the "China Hong Kong Stock Daily News Opinion Index" recorded -0.12, which is also neutral towards the market.

* In China, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted its first swap operation after the initial repurchase and purchase of loans. The amount was RMB 50 billion. Although the scale is not large, the interest rate is cheap (20bp), which is positive for the big finance and dividend directions. This policy operation may aim to stabilize market expectations and provide liquidity support.

* However, in the international market, major stock markets in the US and Europe generally experienced a sharp decline, which may cause a chain reaction in global financial markets. Chinese stocks were affected by this and fell nearly 1%, and the A50 futures also showed a decline. In addition, the offshore RMB depreciated significantly, and depreciation may also lead to capital outflow and instability in the financial market.

* In summary, the current overseas Chinese securities market news face presents a certain complexity and uncertainty.

* **Figure 2: Dongzi Securities "China Hong Kong Stock Market - Daily News Sentiment Index"**

**✭Data Source: Dongzi Securities "China Hong Kong Stock Market - Daily News Sentiment Index" uses big data technology to collect news reports about China Hong Kong stocks from 100 global media outlets every day. It evaluates the attributes and influence of all related news articles, and then calculates the daily news score through the Dongzi Securities News Sentiment Model, thereby revealing the positive or negative attributes of the news information on the Hong Kong stock market. **

**✭Index Explanation: The higher the "China Hong Kong Stock Market - Daily News Sentiment Index" from Dongzi Securities, the more positive it is for the stock market. The lower the index, the more negative it is. An index below -1 is considered bearish, between -1 and 1 is considered neutral, and an index above 1 is considered bullish. **

* Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicators for Public Opinion (III)

[Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index]

* **Divergence in Sentiment Among Overseas Chinese Securities Market Participants Intensifies**

* **Dongzi Securities 2024-10-22 9:30:00**

* Today, the "Singapore FTSE China A50-Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" is 58, a 18.9% decrease from yesterday. Although the index experienced a significant decline, the market's bullish forces still hold a relative advantage.

* Meanwhile, the "Hong Kong Stock Exchange-Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" also exhibits a sharp decline trend, with a 37% decrease from yesterday, ultimately closing at 44.3. This significant decline indicates that the Hong Kong market is under significant pressure, and the market's bearish forces hold a certain advantage, with cautious buying sentiment.

* Recent market conditions have exhibited a typical "information-driven" feature, with fluctuations in trading sentiment becoming more pronounced, which may lead to significant short-term market movements. Overall, the decline in both sentiment indicators today reflects market volatility and uncertainty.

**✭Data Source: Dongzi Securities "FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" uses big data technology to collect nearly 100 articles and research reports on FTSE China A50 analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it uses relevant software to extract keywords, analyze the bullish and bearish attributes of keywords, and conduct other data processing to obtain the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the FTSE A50 stock market on the same day. **

**✭Index Explanation: The higher the "Singapore FTSE China A50 Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" from East Securities, the more bullish the institutions are about the stock market, and vice versa. A reading below 48 indicates a bearish sentiment, between 48 and 52 indicates a neutral sentiment, and above 52 indicates a bullish sentiment. **

* **Figure 2: Dongzi Securities "China Hong Kong Stock Market - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index"**

**✭Data Source: Dongzi Securities "China Hong Kong Stock Market - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index" uses big data technology to collect nearly 200 articles and research reports on China Hong Kong stock analysis from 100 international investment banks and 100 international financial media every day. Then, it uses relevant software to extract keywords, analyze the bullish and bearish attributes of keywords, and conduct other data processing to obtain the distribution ratio of bullish and bearish forces in the Hong Kong stock market on the same day. **

**✭Index Explanation: The higher the "Institutional Sentiment Index for China Hong Kong Stocks" from Dongzi Securities, the more bullish the institutions are about the stock market, and vice versa. An index below 48 indicates a bearish sentiment, while an index between 48 and 52 indicates a neutral sentiment, and an index above 52 indicates a bullish sentiment. **

* Dongzi Securities Social Media Big Data Indicator (IV)

[Overseas Chinese Securities - Pre-Market Forecast for the Day]

* **Overseas Chinese Securities Market is expected to be volatile today**

* **Dongzi Securities 2024-10-22 9:30:00**

* Today, it is expected that the FTSE China A50 Index in Singapore will show a volatile trend today.

* It is expected that the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index will show a volatile trend today.

* **Figure 2: Dongzi Securities "Prediction of Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Trend"**

* Dongzi Securities Big Data Indicator (V)

[Overseas Chinese Securities - Pre-Market Strategy for the Day]

* **The current Hong Kong market is still in a consolidation phase**

* **Dongzi Securities 2024-10-22 9:30:00**

* Since we closed our long positions in the Hang Seng Index last week, the market has seen increased volatility recently. Based on the "Overseas Chinese Securities Three Major Public Opinion Indexes" developed by Dongzi Securities, we believe that the Hong Kong market is currently in the mid-term adjustment phase after a sharp rise. The shrinking of trading volume indicates that some funds are exiting the market. Although there is a situation of capital outflow, we expect the market to be less volatile rather than a sharp decline, and to be characterized by fluctuations.

* We can clearly see from the market sentiment index that the "Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Long-Only Comprehensive Index" and the "China Hong Kong - Daily Institutional Public Opinion Index" have been rising since mid-September and reached a high on October 3 before falling back. They have been experiencing sharp rises and falls in recent days. The sentiment index provides an early warning of the fund movements in the market. We see that the incremental funds that flowed in from mid-September to early October have undergone repeated trading in recent days, and their attitude has quickly shifted from optimism in mid-September to excessive optimism in early October, and then to chasing highs and selling low in recent days, with their trading behavior becoming more random and uncertain. The drastic change in trading sentiment is mainly because the market has recently shown typical "information-driven" characteristics. All eyes are on the policy stimulus.

* Unfortunately, we found from the "China Hong Kong - Daily News Public Opinion Index" developed by Dongzi Securities that the index has fallen back from its historical high and has been fluctuating steadily so far, without showing any signs of a favorable turn. This indicates that the market's expectations of policy have gradually returned to rationality from the excessive euphoria earlier. They believe that whether the positive policy measures can be

* **Figure 2: Dongzi Securities "FTSE China A50 Index Mid-term Smart Live Trading" Performance Chart**

**Figure 3: Dongzi Securities "Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Midline Smart Live Trading"**

* **Figure 4: Dongzi Securities "Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Midline Smart Live Trading Performance Chart"**

* **✭ Dongzi Securities Midline Smart Live Trading is a smart trading model that guides trading operations based on Dongzi Securities' "Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Long Position Comprehensive Index", Dongzi Securities "Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily News Sentiment Index", and Dongzi Securities "Overseas Chinese Securities - Daily Institutional Sentiment Index", through big data weighted calculation to derive midline buy and sell trading signals. **