A French trader, known as Théo, has made significant profits by betting on former President Donald Trump's election outcomes through the prediction platform Polymarket. Théo, who possesses extensive trading and financial services experience, placed substantial wagers on Trump, turning around nearly $47.6 million in profits. His accounts, notably "Theo4," have collectively earned over $22 million from supporting Trump.
In a strategic move, ten major players spent approximately $70.6 million in USDCoin in October, aiming for Trump's victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Polymarket's settlement criteria are based on concurrent announcements by major news outlets. As the election neared, over 50% of the bets supporting Trump were controlled by five major entities, potentially resulting in over $81 million in returns.
A notable portion of these Trump bets is managed by accounts potentially controlled by a single entity, driven by a strong belief in Trump's success. Compared to Trump's concentrated support, Kamala Harris's backing is more dispersed, with the top five supporters holding only 18% of her shares.
Elon Musk has suggested that decentralized prediction markets, like Polymarket, might provide more accurate forecasts than traditional polling methods because investors essentially vote with their savings.
