Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will hit record levels next year, driven by robust demand from central banks and anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts. Goldman has identified gold as the top commodity trade for 2025. Analysts, including Daan Struyven, suggest a target price of $3,000 per ounce by December 2025.
This bullish outlook is primarily supported by two factors: increasing central bank purchases and the potential cyclical boost from inflows into gold ETFs as the Federal Reserve eases monetary policy. Gold prices have shown a strong rebound throughout the year, surging to record highs before retreating following Donald Trump's electoral victory, which bolstered the U.S. dollar.
Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold's future trajectory, suggesting that increased official sector purchases and a shift toward more accommodative Fed policies will support price growth. Additionally, potential support from the Trump administration could provide further upside for gold.
Trade tensions could also escalate, potentially reinvigorating speculative positions in gold. Increasing concerns over the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy may further bolster gold prices, particularly as central banks holding significant U.S. debt reserves might choose to increase their gold holdings.
Currently, spot gold is trading around $2,585 per ounce, having previously exceeded $2,790 in the last month.
In terms of other commodities, Goldman forecasts Brent crude oil to trade between $70 and $85 per barrel next year. Short-term oil prices may rise if the Trump administration imposes stricter sanctions on Iran's oil supply. Furthermore, base metals are expected to be more favored than ferrous metals, while European natural gas faces short-term upward risks due to weather conditions.
