A study by the Rapidan Energy Group, a consultancy run by former White House official Bob McNally, suggests that ongoing demand growth and dwindling spare capacity might cause a notable surge in oil prices following 2035.
According to the paper, a "structurally short supply side" will show itself when forecasts of a global demand peak by 2030 fades, sparking a boom cycle as spare capacity declines. Under three scenarios including different degrees of electric car adoption, world oil consumption is anticipated to rise until 2050. Rapidan pointed out that, with "no end in sight" for the usage of motor fuel, gasoline demand will continue to climb until 2035 even in China, a leader in EV sales. The company issued a warning: oil prices might rise to $150 per barrel without enough funding for fresh supply initiatives.
Rapidan said in the near term that producers would see "a few years of weak prices" as oversupply causes crude to drop to $55 per barrel. Non-OPEC+ nation output—that of the United States, Brazil, and Guyana—is likely to stay strong. Other analysts, including Goldman Sachs (GS, Financial) and the International Energy
Agency, predict consumption to peak this decade as the world moves toward
greener energy sources speeds forward.
