Smucker's Strategic Move

From Twinkies to Ding Dongs: Smucker's $5.6 billion deal to expand its snack empire

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Sep 11, 2023
Summary
  • Smucker to acquire Hostess Brands in $5.6 billion deal.
  • Acquisition expected to benefit both companies.
  • Regulatory approval still pending for acquisition.
  • Coffee prices expected to turn deflationary, impacting industry could be a riks for investors.
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J.M. Smucker Co. (SJM, Financial) announced on Monday its agreement to acquire Hostess Brands Inc. (TWNK, Financial), the maker of iconic snacks like Twinkies and Ding Dongs. The deal, valued at $5.6 billion, has sent shockwaves through the food industry and has investors buzzing with excitement.

The news of the acquisition sent shares of Hostess Brands soaring, with the stock reaching record territory. The deal is seen as a strategic move by Smucker to expand its portfolio and tap into the growing snack market. Hostess, known for its beloved snack cakes, has a strong presence in the market and a loyal customer base.

The acquisition comes as no surprise to industry insiders, as Smucker has been vocal about its interest in acquisitions and expanding its portfolio. In a recent conference call, CEO Mark Smucker said, "We remain very interested in acquisitions...and we hope that M&A will continue to play an important part of our growth story over time."

The move is expected to be a win-win for both companies. Smucker will gain access to Hostess Brands' popular snack products, while Hostess will benefit from Smucker's resources and distribution network. The acquisition will also allow Smucker to diversify its product offerings and reduce its reliance on its core brands.

The deal is also a testament to the resilience of the snack industry. Despite the challenges posed by the pandemic, the snack market has remained strong, with consumers seeking comfort and indulgence in familiar treats. This acquisition positions Smucker to capitalize on this trend and further strengthen its position in the market.

While the acquisition is still subject to regulatory approval, industry experts believe it is likely to go through. If successful, the deal will be a game-changer for both companies and could pave the way for further consolidation in the food industry.

Investors are keeping a close eye on Smucker's stock, which initially tumbled following the announcement but is expected to rebound as the market digests the news. Analysts are optimistic about the long-term prospects of the acquisition, citing the strong brand recognition and growth potential of Hostess Brands' products.

Resilient categories and focused investments drive growth

In a recent earnings call, executives from Smucker discussed the company's strong performance and future outlook. The CEO highlighted the company's focus on resilient categories and its commitment to investing in its brands.

Smucker emphasized the company participates in categories that are experiencing growth and has a broad presence within those categories. This strategy has paid off, as the company reported a very good quarter with both sales and volume growth. He expects this momentum to continue as the company continues to invest and execute with excellence.

One example of a resilient category mentioned by Smucker is peanut butter. He highlighted the affordability and protein content of peanut butter, which has contributed to its continued growth. Smucker also mentioned the success of Jif, which has regained its number one share position in the market.

Another category that has been a strong growth engine for the company is pet snacks, particularly dog snacks. Smucker mentioned the success of Milk-Bone, which offers products ranging from value to premium. The company has seen growth in its mainstream offerings and has improved its supply chain for Meow Mix, resulting in increased sales.

Tucker Marshall, the chief financial officer of Smucker, provided further insights into the company's performance. He acknowledged the first quarter had an over-delivery of 16 cents, primarily driven by selling, general and administrative expenses. Marshall noted these expenses would return in the second quarter and throughout the fiscal year.

Marshall also discussed the company's outlook for the second quarter. He mentioned continued momentum in spreads, with Jif's recovery expected in the second quarter. The coffee category is also expected to perform well. In the pet segment, co-manufacturing sales are projected to be evenly spread across the second and third quarters, with a slight slowdown in the fourth quarter.

When asked about consumer behavior in the pet category, Smucker and Marshall both expressed confidence in the company's pet portfolio. Smucker highlighted the discretionary nature of pet snacks, but emphasized that consumers often treat their pets better than their children. The company believes that its pet snacks, particularly its dog snacks, will continue to perform well as it meets the needs of consumers across different price points.

In terms of financials, Marshall addressed the company's balance sheet and acquisition strategy. He stated the company feels good about its balance sheet and remains interested in acquisitions. While the industry has been relatively quiet on the M&A front, Smucker expressed optimism that acquisitions will continue to play an important part in the company's growth story.

Coffee price risk

Coffee prices have been a topic of concern for investors and analysts recently, as they are expected to turn deflationary. This means the price of coffee is expected to decrease rather than increase in the near future. This news has raised questions about the impact on the coffee industry and whether it will still be able to achieve organic growth.

During a recent earnings call, a financial analyst asked about the deflationary trend in coffee prices and its potential impact on the industry. The response from the company's representative confirmed coffee prices are expected to be flat to slightly down due to deflation in the underlying green coffee. However, they also mentioned there is expected to be volume momentum for the portfolio on a year-over-year basis.

Despite the deflationary pricing, the company anticipates gross profit margin improvement year over year. However, they also mentioned that some of the gross profit improvement will be spent on marketing and investments in liquid coffee and sustainability. As a result, the segment profit margin is expected to be in the high-20s, which is lower than the low-30s Ebit margins that were previously achieved.

Conclusion

Overall, the acquisition of Hostess Brands by J.M. Smucker is a strategic move that highlights the company's commitment to growth and diversification. With the snack market showing no signs of slowing down, this deal could be a recipe for success for both companies.

Smucker continues to focus on resilient categories and its investments in brands have driven its growth. The company's strong performance in categories such as peanut butter and pet snacks, along with its commitment to executing with excellence, has positioned it well for continued success in the future.

Disclosures

I/we have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and have no plans to buy any new positions in the stocks mentioned within the next 72 hours. Click for the complete disclosure