The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have bolstered the financial performance of Danish shipping giant Maersk (MAERSK, Financial), leading the company to revise its annual profit forecast upwards for the fourth time in less than six months.
Maersk attributed this adjustment to increased shipping demand and rising freight rates due to supply chain disruptions caused by attacks in the Red Sea region. The company now expects its EBITDA for this year to range between $11 billion and $11.5 billion, up from the prior estimate of $9 billion to $11 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' average prediction of $10.1 billion.
As a global leader in container shipping, Maersk controls approximately one-sixth of the world's container transport. The ongoing Red Sea conflict has notably impacted global supply chains, compelling Maersk to revise its profit forecast three times this year—in May, June, and August.
Since last year, attacks by Houthi forces have diverted numerous container ships to alternate routes around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. This detour has absorbed some excess capacity in the container industry while boosting freight rates.
Earlier this month, Maersk announced a vessel-sharing agreement with Hapag-Lloyd AG, set to commence in 2025, signaling the expectation that the Red Sea security issues will persist into next year.
Maersk also anticipates global container demand to increase by 6% this year, reaching the upper end of its previously estimated growth range of 4% to 6%. Recently, the company's American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) saw gains of up to 7% before slightly retreating.
Moreover, Maersk reported $15.8 billion in revenue for the third quarter ending September, with preliminary unaudited figures showing an EBITDA of $4.8 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $3.63 billion, and an EBIT of $3.3 billion, against anticipated $2.29 billion. The detailed third-quarter results will be released on October 31.
