Argus analyst John Eade has revised his rating for LyondellBasell (LYB, Financial), changing it from a Buy to a Hold. This update reflects a shift in his assessment of the company's current market performance and future prospects.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 21 analysts, the average target price for LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB, Financial) is $69.88 with a high estimate of $105.00 and a low estimate of $50.00. The average target implies an upside of 21.29% from the current price of $57.61. More detailed estimate data can be found on the LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 24 brokerage firms, LyondellBasell Industries NV's (LYB, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.9, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB, Financial) in one year is $61.91, suggesting a upside of 7.46% from the current price of $57.61. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB) Summary page.
LYB Key Business Developments
Release Date: April 25, 2025
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): $0.33 per share.
- EBITDA: Nearly $600 million.
- Cash Returns to Shareholders: Approximately $500 million.
- Cash Balance: $1.9 billion at the end of the first quarter.
- Olefins and Polyolefins Americas EBITDA: $251 million.
- Olefins and Polyolefins Europe, Asia, and International EBITDA: $17 million.
- Intermediates and Derivatives EBITDA: $211 million.
- Advanced Polymer Solutions EBITDA: $46 million.
- Technology Segment EBITDA: $52 million.
- Capital Investment: $483 million during the quarter.
- Shareholder Returns: $433 million in dividends and $110 million in share repurchases.
- Capital Expenditures Reduction: $100 million reduction planned.
- Working Capital Reduction Target: Additional $200 million reduction planned.
- Fixed-Cost Savings Target: At least $200 million in additional savings planned.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- LyondellBasell Industries NV (LYB, Financial) achieved a significant improvement in safety performance, with a total recordable incident rate of 0.12, showcasing their commitment to operational excellence.
- The company is on track to unlock $1 billion in recurring annual EBITDA by the end of the year through its value enhancement program, with $50 million coming from fixed cost reductions.
- LYB's global supply network is well-positioned to handle trade volatility, with approximately 75% of polyethylene and polypropylene sold in local markets, minimizing tariff impacts.
- The Flex 2 project, which converts ethylene into higher-value propylene, is expected to deliver strong financial returns with an IRR in the mid-teens and an estimated EBITDA benefit of $150 million per year post-startup.
- LYB's cash improvement plan aims to enhance cash flows by $500 million in 2025, focusing on capital expenditure reductions, working capital improvements, and fixed-cost savings.
Negative Points
- The company faced significant challenges in the first quarter, with EBITDA impacted by planned and unplanned maintenance, resulting in a $200 million reduction.
- Higher feedstock costs led to lower integrated polyethylene margins, creating additional headwinds for the Olefins and Polyolefins Americas segment.
- The European market remains uncertain due to potential impacts from trade volatility, despite some signs of seasonal improvement.
- LYB's first-quarter earnings were affected by a significant turnaround at the Channelview complex and an unplanned outage at the Lake Charles JV.
- The company is navigating the deepest and longest downturn in recent history, with ongoing market uncertainty and volatile trade policies posing challenges.
