Piper Sandler has increased its price target for TransMedics (TMDX, Financial) shares from $125 to $145, maintaining an Overweight rating. The analysis reflects slightly weaker organ transplant volumes and fewer medical jet flights by the company in May compared to April’s record levels. Despite a mid-single-digit decline in liver and heart transplants month-over-month, trends remain positive.
The firm anticipates that the continued adoption of machine perfusion, especially in liver donation after brain death (DBD), is likely to partially offset the recent downturn. Although it is still early in the second quarter, Piper Sandler predicts that TransMedics is well-positioned to surpass consensus sales expectations, potentially sustaining the stock's recent upward momentum.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 8 analysts, the average target price for TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX, Financial) is $136.50 with a high estimate of $179.00 and a low estimate of $103.00. The average target implies an upside of 6.03% from the current price of $128.74. More detailed estimate data can be found on the TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 10 brokerage firms, TransMedics Group Inc's (TMDX, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.0, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX, Financial) in one year is $251.30, suggesting a upside of 95.2% from the current price of $128.74. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) Summary page.
TMDX Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX, Financial) reported a record total revenue of $143.5 million for Q1 2025, representing a 48% year-over-year growth.
- The company achieved a significant improvement in gross margins, reaching 61.5%, up from 59% in the previous quarter.
- TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) saw a strong increase in transplant services revenue, up 56% year-over-year, driven by higher utilization of their OCS NOP platform.
- The company reported an operating profit of $27.4 million, which is a substantial increase from $8.6 million in Q4 2024.
- TransMedics Group Inc (TMDX) raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $565 million and $585 million, indicating confidence in continued growth.
Negative Points
- The company acknowledged potential variability and seasonality in quarterly performance, which could impact results in upcoming quarters.
- There are concerns about the potential impact of geopolitical, macroeconomic, and tariff policies on the business, although currently deemed minimal.
- Service gross margins declined by 632 basis points year-over-year, primarily due to the higher proportion of aviation business.
- The company faces potential competition in the liver transplant market, with new entrants expected later in the year.
- There is uncertainty regarding the precise launch timing of new clinical programs, as it depends on FDA approval and other regulatory processes.
