Alibaba (BABA, Financial) experienced a slight decline in its share price, dipping 30 cents to approximately $113.19. Options trading activity was close to the norm, with around 91,000 contracts exchanged, showing a preference for calls over puts. The put/call ratio settled at 0.38, which is lower than the usual level of around 0.48.
Implied volatility for the stock, known as IV30, decreased by 1.37, reaching about 30.8. This level is within the bottom 25% range observed over the past year, indicating an anticipated daily price fluctuation of $2.20. Additionally, the steepening of the put-call skew points to a heightened demand for options that offer downside protection.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 38 analysts, the average target price for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA, Financial) is $159.92 with a high estimate of $189.61 and a low estimate of $102.18. The average target implies an upside of 41.61% from the current price of $112.93. More detailed estimate data can be found on the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 41 brokerage firms, Alibaba Group Holding Ltd's (BABA, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 1.7, indicating "Outperform" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA, Financial) in one year is $110.59, suggesting a downside of 2.07% from the current price of $112.93. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) Summary page.
BABA Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 15, 2025
- Total Revenue: RMB236.5 billion, an increase of 7% year-over-year.
- Revenue Growth Excluding Sun Art and Intime: 10% year-over-year.
- Adjusted EBITDA: RMB32.6 billion, an increase of 36% year-over-year.
- Non-GAAP Net Income: RMB29.8 billion, an increase of 22%.
- GAAP Net Income: RMB12 billion, an increase of RMB11.1 billion.
- Operating Cash Flow: RMB27.5 billion, an increase of 18%.
- Free Cash Flow: RMB3.7 billion, a decrease of 76%.
- Net Cash Position: RMB366.4 billion (USD50.5 billion).
- Taobao and Tmall Group Revenue: RMB101.4 billion, an increase of 9%.
- Customer Management Revenue Growth: 12% year-over-year.
- AIDC Revenue Growth: 22% year-over-year.
- Cloud Intelligence Group Revenue Growth: 18% year-over-year.
- AI-Related Product Revenue Growth: Triple-digit year-over-year growth for the seventh consecutive quarter.
- Annual Dividend: USD1.05 per ADS, a 5% increase year-over-year.
- Special Dividend: USD0.95 per ADS, higher than last year's USD0.66 per ADS.
- Total Cash Dividends: USD2 per ADS, amounting to USD4.6 billion.
- Total Shareholder Return: USD16.5 billion, including USD11.9 billion in share repurchases.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA, Financial) reported a 10% year-over-year revenue growth, excluding Sun Art and Intime, and a 36% increase in adjusted EBITDA.
- Alibaba Cloud's revenue grew by 18% this quarter, driven by robust AI demand, with AI-related product revenue maintaining triple-digit growth for the seventh consecutive quarter.
- The company has successfully open-sourced over 200 models under the QN family, with more than 300 million downloads worldwide, enhancing its leadership in AI technology.
- Taobao and Tmall Group saw a 12% year-over-year increase in customer management revenue, driven by improved take rates and software service fees.
- Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) announced a total cash dividend of USD2 per ADS, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders, alongside a USD11.9 billion share repurchase program.
Negative Points
- Free cash flow decreased by 76% to RMB3.7 billion, primarily due to increased cloud infrastructure expenditure.
- Despite revenue growth, Alibaba Cloud's adjusted EBITDA margin decreased quarter-over-quarter due to higher investments in technology and infrastructure.
- AIDC reported a loss of RMB3.6 billion, although it narrowed compared to the previous year, indicating ongoing challenges in achieving profitability.
- The company faces potential uncertainties in global trade regulations, which could impact its international e-commerce business.
- Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (BABA) is in an investment phase for its instant commerce business, which may pressure EBITDA in the short term due to aggressive user acquisition strategies.
