Wells Fargo has increased its price target for CF Industries (CF, Financial) to $105, up from the previous target of $98, while maintaining an Overweight rating. This adjustment reflects a favorable outlook for nitrogen and a reduction in risks associated with the Blue Point joint venture, according to the analyst. The firm is optimistic about CF Industries' ability to maintain its strong record of generating cash and sharing profits with shareholders, even as the Blue Point project progresses.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast
Based on the one-year price targets offered by 17 analysts, the average target price for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF, Financial) is $90.24 with a high estimate of $111.00 and a low estimate of $80.00. The average target implies an downside of 4.69% from the current price of $94.68. More detailed estimate data can be found on the CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Forecast page.
Based on the consensus recommendation from 20 brokerage firms, CF Industries Holdings Inc's (CF, Financial) average brokerage recommendation is currently 2.9, indicating "Hold" status. The rating scale ranges from 1 to 5, where 1 signifies Strong Buy, and 5 denotes Sell.
Based on GuruFocus estimates, the estimated GF Value for CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF, Financial) in one year is $81.73, suggesting a downside of 13.68% from the current price of $94.68. GF Value is GuruFocus' estimate of the fair value that the stock should be traded at. It is calculated based on the historical multiples the stock has traded at previously, as well as past business growth and the future estimates of the business' performance. More detailed data can be found on the CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) Summary page.
CF Key Business Developments
Release Date: May 08, 2025
- Adjusted EBITDA: $644 million for Q1 2025.
- Net Earnings: $312 million attributable to common stockholders.
- Earnings Per Share (EPS): $1.85 per diluted share, approximately 80% higher than Q1 2024.
- EBITDA: $617 million.
- Net Cash from Operations: $2.4 billion on a trailing 12-month basis.
- Free Cash Flow: Approximately $1.6 billion on a trailing 12-month basis.
- Free Cash Flow to Adjusted EBITDA Conversion Rate: 63%.
- Shareholder Returns: $530 million returned in Q1 2025, including $434 million for repurchasing 5.4 million shares.
- Share Repurchase Authorization: $630 million remaining, with a new $2 billion program authorized through 2029.
- Capital Expenditures: Expected to be approximately $650 million for the full year 2025.
- Gross Ammonia Production: Over 2.6 million tons, reflecting a 100% utilization rate.
For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.
Positive Points
- CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF, Financial) reported a strong adjusted EBITDA of $644 million for Q1 2025, reflecting outstanding performance amid favorable global nitrogen industry conditions.
- The company achieved a 100% utilization rate, producing over 2.6 million tons of gross ammonia for the second consecutive quarter.
- CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is advancing its Blue Point joint venture with JERA and Mitsui, which is expected to drive growth through low-carbon ammonia production.
- The company has returned $5 billion to shareholders since 2022 and announced an additional $2 billion share repurchase program, demonstrating a strong commitment to shareholder returns.
- CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is nearing completion of its carbon capture and sequestration project at the Land Adlsonville complex, which will generate 45Q tax credits and support environmental goals.
Negative Points
- The expected start-up of new ammonia capacity in North America may introduce volatility in global ammonia prices as trade flows adjust.
- Despite strong performance, CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) faces challenges from potential capital inflation and labor costs for its Blue Point project.
- The company is impacted by tariffs on nitrogen imports, which could affect trade flows and pricing dynamics in the US market.
- CF Industries Holdings Inc (CF) is navigating a tight nitrogen supply-demand balance, with low channel inventories and high demand potentially straining supply.
- The company faces geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties, particularly concerning Russian fertilizer imports and potential changes in European gas policies.
